Top scorer multiples
Plenty of bookmakers have priced up a whole host of top goalscorer markets now, including not only the tournament outright, but also top scorers specific to each nation, major domestic club, or domestic league.
Certain bookmakers are allowing multiple bets on selections within these markets (for example amongst different nation scorers but not between nation and club scorers etc), creating the opportunity to have a shot at a big payout for a small outlay.
Such bets are a bookies benefit normally, but is there anything special to these markets which makes an investment justifiable during the European Championships?
Having done some research into the scoring habits of the last two Championships it soon became evident that for the majority of the 16 competing nations, two goals could, in most cases, ensure a 'win' in the top nation scorer market. As teams progress the bar obviously gets raised, but for the small, unfancied nationals eliminated at the group stage, one or two goals can be enough to be classed as a winner.
Looking through the squad lists of certain countries, there appears to be a lack of goalscoring options unless unpredictables, such as centrebacks netting from corners, are factored in. More likely than not, we are looking at one or two lively runners from each country, as well as, for the unfancied teams, the possibility of 'no goalscorer.' With only two or three likely outcomes I guess you could say its no different to picking several teams from a win/draw/win Saturday domestic coupon, and we all know trying to land five and six folds of this sort are nigh on impossible unless you go for the ridiculously short home bankers.
Top goalscorer multiples will be susceptible to that same problem - that of one or two selections likely letting the bet down, but by perming and also backing the selections each-way there is the hope of taking out a little bit of insurance. Providing all selections don't draw blank, there could be hope of a juicy payout.
My plan of attack has two elements to it and I've looked for teams at one of two extremes 1) those drawn in tough groups that, if the market is correct, are most likely to be sent home after the group stage and 2) those teams that are fancied to progress all the way in the tournanment. As teams from this latter category play six games in total, there is double the opportunity for the 'class' of leading goalscorers to come to the fore, and less chance of luck playing a part in one or two game fixtures (the scenario we are actually hoping to exploit with the category 1 teams). I've thus tried to stay away from teams that could qualify from their group but get eliminated in the quarter's and semi's. I needed a way of cutting down the number of bets from 16, since that makes a hell of a lot of perms for multiples, and this was the best logic I could come up with.
The teams that I've come down on are Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Holland. I rate Robbie Keane and his goalscoring record for Ireland is admirable. I think he's Ireland's best hope of a goal against tight Spanish and Italian defences, although his most likely opportunity should come against Croatia. It could well be that whoever scores against Croatia is the winner of the top Irish scorer market. I can't fathom out Croatia's best side and who is likely to score most of Modric, Eduardo, Olic or Jelavic, so passed them over.
Denmark were a tricky side to pick a player from since Bendtner and Rommedahl were joint-top scorers with three a piece in qualifying but with Bendtner likely to spearhead the attack, he was the percentage call. I was hoping he might be on penalty-taking duties but it seems Daniel Agger netted in their friendly win this evening. However, Bendtner, who has 18 goals from 48 international starts just shades the vote over 33-year-old Brondby flyer Rommedahl. Portugal's main hope of a goal is Ronaldo but he's priced accordingly and with Nani also likely to chip in with one or two, I passed them over in this group.
Another Sunderland boy caused me a bit of headache since the Racing Post's football guys list him as the probable penalty taker for Sweden, although I am hoping Ibrahimovic can blast in enough goals against Ukraine for that not to be an issue even if Larsson were to net from the spot. I don't think there is much between Sweden and France in Group D and whilst they could well progress beyond the group stage, a potential quarter final versus Spain is considered a very tough fixture in which they could feasibly draw a blank. In an ideal world I'm hoping Sweden fail to net versus England and France and that Ibrahimovic nets in the Ukraine game to land the spoils.
Germany and Holland are the two sides I hoped might go all of the way to the final in the tournament. I'm thus hoping that their class goalscorers will get a greater opportunity for their ability to shine through. Both sides look blessed with goals and the Dutch have a headache deciding between Huntelaar, who was prolific (12 goals) in qualifying, and Van Persie, who scored a respectable 6 and arrives on the back of a fantastic domestic season at Arsenal. Based on the fact Van Persie started, and netted twice, in their friendly against Northern Ireland this evening, he gets the nod.
Germany look to have an unbelievable arsenal going into the tournament and boast what is probably the best squad in the tournament. Schweinsteiger, Oezil, Muller, Podolski, Klose and Gomez are a joy to watch and they have been a very popular ante-post choice. Klose was their leading marksmen in qualifying but Gomez led the line in their latest friendly and has enjoyed a superb domestic season at Bayern. It is hoped he doesn't suffer from a Champions League hangover but if he starts he is guaranteed service due to Germany's embarassment of attacking talent.
Bets (Coral):
Top Sweden scorer - Ibrahimovic 3/1
Top Denmark scorer - Bendtner 7/2
Top Ireland scorer - Keane 7/2
Top Germany scorer - Gomez 2/1
Top Holland scorer - Van Persie 2/1
10 x 0.05 pt EW trebles
5 x 0.025 pt EW fourfolds
