Tournament Outright Bets

Tournament Outright

If anyone hasn't come across the Castrol Euro football calculator then I'd recommend paying their site a visit. Using their formula, they churn out what they believe to be the percentage chance of a number of outcomes occurring, including that of each team being crowned champions. If the Castrol percentages are converted into 'true' odds the resulting market reads roughly something like this....

100/30 Spain, 11/2 Holland, 15/2 Germany, 11/1 England, Portugal, 20/1 France, 25/1 Italy, Russia, 33/1 Ukraine, Sweden, 40/1 Czech Republic, 50/1 Croatia, Republic of Ireland, 60/1 Denmark, Poland, 125/1 Greece.

The actual available odds at the time of writing this evening (bolded teams are those backable at odds greater than their 'true' chance of winning) are 11/4 Spain 3/1, Germany, 7/1 Holland, 12/1 England, 12/1 France, 14/1 Italy, 20/1 Portugal, 25/1 Russia, 50/1 Poland, 50/1 Ukraine, 60/1 Croatia, 80/1 Sweden, Czech Republic, 100/1 Denmark, Republic Of Ireland, Greece.

In terms of a percentage discrepancy, the Castrol Figures suggest PORTUGAL are the team that represent the biggest value at their present 20/1 price as their 'true' odds are suggested to be half of that. However, Portugal look to have a very tricky task against the free scoring Germans and Dutch considering they had one of the weaker defences in qualifying. For main bet purposes perhaps it might be better to side with HOLLAND, who, if they won Group B, potentially face Poland or Russia and then possibly France or England en route to a potential final with Spain. Finishing runner-up would make things a little more difficult as a potential set of fixtures with Russia, Spain and Germany could await, but with the likes of Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie and Huntelaar in their ranks, they possess plenty of match winners that should keep their opponents on their toes.

Holland to win tournament outright 7/1 Boylesports (who offer a concession whereby losing stakes are refunded if selections are eliminated on penalties), 0.375 pt win

Portugal to win the tournament outright 20/1 Bet Victor (who offer a concession whereby losing stakes are refunded if Spain win the tournament), 0.125 pt win

Euro Special - Top Scoring League

Euro Special - Top Scoring League

Ladbrokes offer a novelty market in which you can bet on the highest scoring league at the Championships - with the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A the four options.

The Premier League heads the market at 1/2 and although Robin Van Persie represents this division and looks set to knock in a few, the likes of Torres and Ballotelli were peripheral figures for their respective sides during qualification. With Rooney suspended for England's opening two matches and his likely replacements (Wellbeck, Defoe and Carroll - all representing the same league) falling short of world class, I feel the favourite is worth taking on.

Serie A have Ibrahimovic, Sneijder, Klose and Di Natale on their side and have fair claims, but La Liga and Bundesliga look the pair to focus on.

La Liga boast Benzema, Ronaldo and Llorente, then beyond that trio there are the likes of Pedro, Iniesta, Oezil and Postiga that could also weight in with a contribution.

However, the most potent armoury looks to be in the BUNDESLIGA, with Bayern Munich mainly responsible for some of the most exciting attacking players in the world. Gomez (top goalscorer favourite for the tournament), Huntelaar, who scored 12 goals during qualification for Holland, and Lewandowski (scored over 20 for Borussia Dortmund, representing Poland) and Mueller, Robben and Ribery are all lively runners for the Bundesliga. The 3/1 on offer could be considered too big considering the Dutch and German representation against a Portugal defence who shipped more than a goal a game during qualification.

Bundesliga to be top league scorer 3/1 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win

Player Specials - Top Premier League Scorer

Player Specials - Top Premier League Scorer

ROBIN VAN PERSIE occupies second favouritism behind Germany's Mario Gomez in the standard top goalscorer market. I fancy both of their nations to progress beyond the group stage and bag their fair share of goals, but the market has a rather more open look to it and it might be best to take the Bundesliga boys out of the equation and bet in the top Premier League scorer alternative.

The reason this market appeals as offering an angle is that Wayne Rooney (16/1) is suspended for England's first two group matches versus France and Sweden, while Fernando Torres (10/1) and Mario Ballotelli (10/1) were peripheral figures in qualification for Spain and Italy respectively.

Arsenal's new recruit Lukas Podolski is an excellent player with a deadly left foot and could prove a dark horse at 10/1, but with Germany's main source of goals like to be Bayern's Mario Gomez the percentage call is to take him on, likewise Man City magician David Silva, who is a joy to watch and looks capable of netting but may see Fernando Llorente outpoint him in the Spanish scoring stakes.

Although he is favourite in this market, Robin Van Persie really does have plenty going for him. He netted six in qualifying, and although Klaas Jan-Huntelaar netted double that tally, the Dutch appeal as the sort of side that will continue to fire in goals throughout the tournament and provide him with plenty of ammunition.

Portugal amd Denmark's defences are both breachable at the group stage to get him up and running and, barring injury, Van Persie could cap off what has been a career-best season at Arsenal with a bold showing.

Robin Van Persie to be top Premier League goalscorer at the Euros 4/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt win

England Special - Top Team Scorer

England Special - Top Team Scorer

Although, like any Englishman, I’d really like England to win the group and go all of the way in the competition, I don't have particularly high expectations going into the tournament. The timing of the FA’s appointment of Roy Hodgson, only weeks before before the start of the tournament, is less than ideal, and the squad is undergoing a transitional phase, with the likes of John Terry, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard perhaps playing their last major tournament and ready to be shown the door with a view to the future.

The loss of Wayne Rooney through suspension for the opening two Group games versus France and Sweden is also a major blow, and with none of England’s strike replacements – Andy Carroll, Jermaine Defoe and Danny Welbeck - prolific either on the international scene or at major international tournaments, goals must be a big worry for England, who are very solid defensively otherwise.

It could well be the case that a one or two goal haul could be enough to find a winner in this market, especially if England are eliminated at the group stage, and there must be some value in taking on the suspended Rooney, who is 5/1 favourite and has drawn a blank at England's last two major tournaments. Second favourite Carroll is expected to play more of a target man type role while the likes of Walcott and Downing appear the sorts that will be creating rather than converting.

The one that appeals as a value bet is ASHLEY YOUNG (8/1 Betfred), who added another England goal to his tally in this week's friendly with Norway and netted against Wales, Montengego and Holland last season to underline his goalscoring prowess.

The Manchester United winger has often been criticised for his theatrics but remains a danger to all around the egde of the box and will be hoping to curl one in against Sweden - who had one of the leakier defences in qualifying - or the penetratable Ukraine.

Ashley Young to be top England goalscorer 8/1 Betfred, 0.5 pt win

Group D Bet - France to win group

Group D Bet

France were a team in turmoil at the 2010 World Cup, with infighting and player revolts undermining their tournament, in which they finished bottom of Group A with just a point to their name. However, they have been transformed from a laughing stock into a serious international force once again since Raymond Domenech was replaced by former Bordeaux boss Laurent Blanc.

Les Bleus are now unbeaten in their last nineteen starts, topped their group during qualification, and have also beaten Germany, England and Brazil in friendlies since their last tournament exit.

Drawn against England, Sweden and Ukraine, France boast excellent head-to-head records against each of those three nations. They are unbeaten in their last five clashes with England, gave Ukraine a 4-1 beating at Donetsk in 2011 (W3 D3 L0) whilst, against Sweden, France are unbeaten in their last 11 games.

Bearing in mind they get to face a Rooney-less England and boast a wealth of attacking talent, including Nasri, Ribery and Benzema, they really do look a juicy price at 7/4 (Paddypower) to top the group.

France to win Group D, 7/4 Paddypower, 2 pts win

Group A bet - Poland To Qualify

Group A Bet

This year’s European Championships are to be staged in Poland and Ukraine and a quick look through the history books reveals how important home advantage can be to the host nation(s). It needs acknowledging that the size of the Championships has changed over the years, with 8 teams competing from 1980 onwards and 16 teams from 1996 onwards, but the stage of elimination for the host nations in this period has been:

1980 – Italy – (semi’s)
1984 – France (winner)
1988 – West Germany (semi’s)
1992 – Sweden (semi’s)
1996 England (semi’s)
2000 – Belgium/Holland (Group/semi’s)
2004 – Portugal (final)
2008 – Austria/Switzerland (Group/Group)

Of this year’s hosts, Ukraine have been drawn in a tricky group in which they have to overcome Sweden, France and England, but POLAND (4/5 William Hill) could represent some value to qualify from Group A considering their head-to-head history with Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic.

In 15 games versus Greece, Poland’s record is W10 D2 L3 while they also enjoy a marginally better record against the Czech Republic (W3 D0 L2). Against both opponents, the designated ‘home’ side has enjoyed much the better record (‘home’ team won all five in clashes with Czech Republic and ‘away’ side never won a game in encounters with Russia. Against Greece, Poland also enjoy much the upper hand, having won 10 of 15 games, drawing twice and losing on three occasions, and with the Greeks first on the agenda, an opening round victory for Poland would be a huge boost if they could get some early points on the board and then navigate their way through the final two Group games into the quarters.

Poland automatically qualified for the tournament as hosts and have thus not kicked a competitive ball since losing to Slovakia in their failed World Cup 2010 qualification campaign. However, there appears to be a quiet confidence in the Polish camp and, in a tight-looking group that could be one of the lower scoring ones, there could be some mileage in basing their bid around a solid backline, much like Greece did when causing a big upset to win the 2004 tournament.

A defensive partnership between Marcin Wazilewski and Damien Perquis is developing nicely as they have recorded back-to-back clean sheets in their prep games and with forward Robert Lewandowski coming into the tournament on the back of a very productive domestic season for Borussia Dortmund, they could also have someone capable of firing in the goals to ensure their progression.

I'm not confident emough to suggest them outright for the group at 11/4 as Russia - semi finalists last year - are streetwise and the Czechs can never be underestimated, however, with the benefit of their home advantage, there could definately be some mileage in Poland to qualify at 4/5.

Poland to qualify from Group A 4/5 William Hill, 1 pt win

European Championships - NMP punting diary

Welcome to the NMP blogpage where, for the duration of the European Championships, you can read the ramblings of an armchair football fan trying to make a few quid.

Football betting isn't something I have ever got heavily involved in, as racing has always been my main sport. Whereas I have spent countless hours studying racing form and reading racing books to extend my knowledge of the subject, my research into football bets has been far less extensive - mainly walking into a Coral shop and ticking a few boxes after a ten second glance at the league table printed on the back of the quickslip.

My reason for this has been that I am so actively involved in racing that I have never wanted to get to the anorak stage with football. My own football bets have, up to this point, been a source of recreational fun for me, rather than a source of investment, as is the case with the horses. There is only so much time you can devote to betting as part of a healthy relationship, and I reckon my fiancee would argue that I have been pushing those boundaries for quite some time anyway!

That said, the summer is here, and, besides watching Coronation Street, there is little else worth watching on an evening so a daily diet of football will make a nice change. I am going to try ditch the mug approach for a few weeks and try my hand at grinding out a slow, steady profit.

With racing I have a 50 pt bank now and stake on a scale of 0.25 - 3 pts per bet, but I have much more confidence in my opinions with horses and my football bets will be a fraction of the racing ones in reality (although to avoid blogging bets to stupidly small fractions I'll just keep on a 1-3 pt scale on here). I hope to adapt quickly since a bigger strike rate will be needed at the sort of odds I'm looking to play at.

I'll be posting up some ante-post bets for the tournament in the next week, starting from tomorrow since the Racing Post pullout is published on Wednesday and there may be some price movement thereon in which I want to avoid. On a day to day basis, I'll probably play in the handicap markets.

Thanks for reading and don't hesitate to drop me any constructive criticism via e-mail. First bets to follow later in the morning.

Wayne