Group A Bet
This year’s European Championships are to be staged in Poland and Ukraine and a quick look through the history books reveals how important home advantage can be to the host nation(s). It needs acknowledging that the size of the Championships has changed over the years, with 8 teams competing from 1980 onwards and 16 teams from 1996 onwards, but the stage of elimination for the host nations in this period has been:
1980 – Italy – (semi’s)
1984 – France (winner)
1988 – West Germany (semi’s)
1992 – Sweden (semi’s)
1996 England (semi’s)
2000 – Belgium/Holland (Group/semi’s)
2004 – Portugal (final)
2008 – Austria/Switzerland (Group/Group)
Of this year’s hosts, Ukraine have been drawn in a tricky group in which they have to overcome Sweden, France and England, but POLAND (4/5 William Hill) could represent some value to qualify from Group A considering their head-to-head history with Greece, Russia and the Czech Republic.
In 15 games versus Greece, Poland’s record is W10 D2 L3 while they also enjoy a marginally better record against the Czech Republic (W3 D0 L2). Against both opponents, the designated ‘home’ side has enjoyed much the better record (‘home’ team won all five in clashes with Czech Republic and ‘away’ side never won a game in encounters with Russia. Against Greece, Poland also enjoy much the upper hand, having won 10 of 15 games, drawing twice and losing on three occasions, and with the Greeks first on the agenda, an opening round victory for Poland would be a huge boost if they could get some early points on the board and then navigate their way through the final two Group games into the quarters.
Poland automatically qualified for the tournament as hosts and have thus not kicked a competitive ball since losing to Slovakia in their failed World Cup 2010 qualification campaign. However, there appears to be a quiet confidence in the Polish camp and, in a tight-looking group that could be one of the lower scoring ones, there could be some mileage in basing their bid around a solid backline, much like Greece did when causing a big upset to win the 2004 tournament.
A defensive partnership between Marcin Wazilewski and Damien Perquis is developing nicely as they have recorded back-to-back clean sheets in their prep games and with forward Robert Lewandowski coming into the tournament on the back of a very productive domestic season for Borussia Dortmund, they could also have someone capable of firing in the goals to ensure their progression.
I'm not confident emough to suggest them outright for the group at 11/4 as Russia - semi finalists last year - are streetwise and the Czechs can never be underestimated, however, with the benefit of their home advantage, there could definately be some mileage in Poland to qualify at 4/5.
Poland to qualify from Group A 4/5 William Hill, 1 pt win
