Tournament Outright
If anyone hasn't come across the Castrol Euro football calculator then I'd recommend paying their site a visit. Using their formula, they churn out what they believe to be the percentage chance of a number of outcomes occurring, including that of each team being crowned champions. If the Castrol percentages are converted into 'true' odds the resulting market reads roughly something like this....
100/30 Spain, 11/2 Holland, 15/2 Germany, 11/1 England, Portugal, 20/1 France, 25/1 Italy, Russia, 33/1 Ukraine, Sweden, 40/1 Czech Republic, 50/1 Croatia, Republic of Ireland, 60/1 Denmark, Poland, 125/1 Greece.
The actual available odds at the time of writing this evening (bolded teams are those backable at odds greater than their 'true' chance of winning) are 11/4 Spain 3/1, Germany, 7/1 Holland, 12/1 England, 12/1 France, 14/1 Italy, 20/1 Portugal, 25/1 Russia, 50/1 Poland, 50/1 Ukraine, 60/1 Croatia, 80/1 Sweden, Czech Republic, 100/1 Denmark, Republic Of Ireland, Greece.
In terms of a percentage discrepancy, the Castrol Figures suggest PORTUGAL are the team that represent the biggest value at their present 20/1 price as their 'true' odds are suggested to be half of that. However, Portugal look to have a very tricky task against the free scoring Germans and Dutch considering they had one of the weaker defences in qualifying. For main bet purposes perhaps it might be better to side with HOLLAND, who, if they won Group B, potentially face Poland or Russia and then possibly France or England en route to a potential final with Spain. Finishing runner-up would make things a little more difficult as a potential set of fixtures with Russia, Spain and Germany could await, but with the likes of Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie and Huntelaar in their ranks, they possess plenty of match winners that should keep their opponents on their toes.
Holland to win tournament outright 7/1 Boylesports (who offer a concession whereby losing stakes are refunded if selections are eliminated on penalties), 0.375 pt win
Portugal to win the tournament outright 20/1 Bet Victor (who offer a concession whereby losing stakes are refunded if Spain win the tournament), 0.125 pt win
