Northern Monkey - Horse Racing Tips: April 2012

Pinsticker's Guide to the 2012 - Grand National

This year's race is due to be run at 4.15 on Saturday at Aintree.

Synchronised
Won the Welsh National over 3m6f last season and has taken his form to new heights this season, winning the Grade 1 Lexus and Cheltenham Gold Cup. Carries a big weight as a result but is officially 7lb well in. ***

Ballabriggs
Last year's winner is 10lb higher this time around but his whole season has been geared around a successful defence of his crown. He is a strong galloper and jumper and has each-way claims as his prominent racing style can keep him out of trouble. ****

Weird Al
Enigmatic character that has been restricted to eleven career outings. He typically goes well fresh, as when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on his reappearance, but pulled up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time. *

Neptune Collonges
Certainly has the class to make his presence felt at this level, having won three Grade 1 prizes during his heyday. He is regressing these days, however, and would be a surprise winner.*

Calgary Bay
Quirky sort that has finally started to fulfill his obvious potential. He fell at the fourth in this race last year and is now 11lb higher in view of his recent form revival.***

Alfa Beat
Fourth in the 4m Hunt Cup at Cheltenham last year and landed his second Kerry National over 3m earlier this season. Jumped these fences poorly in the Topham last year but open to more improvement and has been trained for the race.***

Planet Of Sound
Grade 1 winner at Punchestown in 2010 and ran a fine race on his seasonal return in the Hennessy this season when second to Carruthers. Could be a lively outsider if the ground comes up good and his stamina holds out. ***

Black Apalachi
Has amassed experience of these big fences and ran a cracker when second to Don't Push It in the 2010 renewal. Age may be against him now, however, and arrives here on the back of just one (albeit respectable) run this season.**

Deep Purple
Won over 3m6f at Sandown in December and is a quadruple Grade 2 winner over fences. His best years may be behind him now though and he fell on his last start at Kempton.*

Junior
Impressive winner of the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last year and this race has been his target ever since (missed the cut last year). Lacks the chase experience of typical National winners but is still improving and isn't handicapped out of this. ***

Chicago Grey
Won the 4m Hunt Cup at Cheltenham last year and will have been expertly prepared for this race by Gordon Elliott (won the race with Silver Birch). Must go close if avoiding trouble out the back of the field. ****

Tatenen
Won a valuble 2m6f handicap at Ascot earlier this season but lacks the staying credentials of most of the opposition and would be a shock winner.*

Seabass
Rapidly improving chaser that is thriving at present and has won all of his last seven races (one point to point). Is ridden by an amateur rider though and his stamina for this longer trip has to be taken on trust. ***

Shakalakaboomboom
Rapidly improving sort that has run well on all starts over hurdles and fences this term. Lacks the experience of some but will be given every chance under Barry Geraghty.***

West End Rocker
Brought down in this race last year but jumped the fences superbly when winning the Becher Chase here in December. Has missed a prep run due to unsuitable ground but has strong claims here, especially if the rains arrive.****

According To Pete
Has landed two valuable handicaps already this season and warrants respect for a trainer that has bounced back to form at the Festivals this year. Might be capable of sneaking a place perhaps.**

On His Own
His form has a patchy look to it but no denying his class when he's on song.
The pick of Ruby Walsh but lacks the experience typical of a National winner on
his seventh chase outing. ***

Always Right
Third in the Scottish National last spring but has gone backwards since
scoring on his reappeance at Kelso. Others are more convincing in a contest this
hot. **

Cappa Bleu
Lightly-raced chaser that is making only this eighth chase start. Was third
in this seasons Welsh National though and no forlorn hope, especially if the
ground is on the soft side. ***

Rare Bob
Grade 1 winning novice three seasons ago and generally jumped these fences
well when fifth in the Becher Chase behind West End Rocker in December. Could
close the gap if granted better ground and could surprise a few at a price.
***

Organisedconfusion
Was laid out to win the Irish National last season and has been campaigned
over inadequate trips this season and over hurdles to protect his mark. Would
come as no surprise to see him leave thos efforts behind now. ****

Treacle
Brought back to his best this term and followed up creditable Paddy Power
Chase second when third in Hennessy Gold Cup. Now up in weights but been aimed
at the race for some time and looks a lively candidate. ****

The Midnight Club
Sixth in last season's race and races off 4lb lower this time around. Could
be vulnerable to improving rivals. **

Mon Mome
Won this race at 100/1 in 2009 but fell the following year. Regressing these
days, so passed over, despite racing off 3lb lower than his winning mark.
*

Arbor Supreme
Has never fulfilled his potential over fences and fell in this race last
year. He is 5lb higher this year even though he's been running over hurdles this
term.*

Sunnyhillboy
Irish National third last year and was laid out to win a Cheltenham handicap
last time. He is officially 10lb well in so must be afforded respect, even
though others have stronger staying claims.***

Killyglen
Blundered five out in this race twelve months ago but had jumped well up
until then. Races off a 5lb lower rating this time and arrives here on the back
of a prep win.*****

Quiscover Fontaine
Irish National fourth last year and has been running over hurdles since to
protect his mark. May lack the chase experience needed here.**

Tharawaat
Grade 3 winner over hurdles but not hit the same heights over fences. Needs
to put behind him a series of wayward efforts this term.*

Becauseicouldntsee
Fell at the second in this race last year but had an interrupted prep. This
time arrives here on the back of a superb performance in the Kim Muir and is
handicapped to go well now 4lb lower this year.****

State Of Play
Fragile sort that has not seen a racetrack since finishing fourth in this off
2lb higher last year. He has placed the previous two seasons too. Vulnerable to
improving rivals again.***

Swing Bill
Exposed handicapper that ran poorly in the Kim Muir and looks up against it
in this company.*

Postmaster
Has been in good form in low grade handicaps and in the point to point scene
but this looks a great deal tougher.*

Giles Cross
Won the Grand National trial at Haydock in February and is still improving
over fences. Shouldn't get knocked about and would be a serious player on soft
ground.****

Midnight Haze
Won on his seasonal reppearance before finishing sixth in the cross-county
race at Cheltenham. Might lack the class for this.*

Vic Venturi
Won the Becher Chase in 2009 but has failed to complete the last two renewals
of this race. Another year older now and his chance may have gone.*

In Compliance
Completed the course last year but was well-held all the same and lacks the
scope for improvement of some.*

Viking Blond
Scores lowly in the consistency stakes and is having only his sixth run over
fences. Likely to come up short.*

Hello Bud
Won 2009 Scottish National and jumped these fences well when fifth in the
2010 renewal of this race. Has regressed since though and likely to be swamped
in the finish.*

Neptune Equester
Won a competitive 3m4f chase at Haydock earlier in the season but has been
held by the handicapper since so others preferred.*

Verdict

Synchronised threw himself firmly into the National picture when landing the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last month and, officially 7lb well in and ridden by Tony McCoy, Jonjo O'Neill's charge is likely to be a popular choice. However, he invariably hits a flat spot in his races and will be no easy ride for the Champion off top-weight. Last year's winner Ballabriggs is another that may be a shade too high in the weights to win off 10lb higher and with the relatively well fancied Junior, On His Own and Cappa Bleu all lacking the chase experience typical of National winners, the vote goes to KILLYGLEN. A Grade 2 winner on the Mildmay course in 2009 for Howard Johnson, he was in the process of running a big race over these fences in this contest twelve months ago when falling five out. Racing off a 5lb lower mark this time and arriving here on the back of a creditable victory at Down Royal last month, he arrives here in good heart and will not be fazed if any rain arrives in the build up to Saturday. Tom Taaffe was delighted with Treacle's performance in the Irish Hennessy, an effort that saw his mark raised 13lb and ensured he'd comfortably make the National Cut, and his bold jumping and effectiveness on spring ground look two factors in his favour as he aims to put the icing on the cake of a season that has seen him take his form to new heights. Chicago Grey looks to have been laid out for the race by 2007 (Silver Birch) winning trainer Gordon Elliott and looks weighted to go well if avoiding trouble at the back of the field while it was hard not to be impressed with West End Rocker's Becher success here in December and, like Giles Cross, he has to enter calculations, if conditions deteriorate. For those looking for an each-way interest at a bigger price, Alfa Beat wasn't given a hard race at Fairyhouse last time and is better than his form figures indicate, while Rare Bob acquited himself well over these fences in the Becher on unsuitable ground and may be capable of plodding on to play a supporting role at a big price.

Northern Monkey - Horse Racing Tips

Monday 30 April 2012

APRIL RESULTS UPDATE

Thursday 12 April 2012

Grand National 2012 - Pinstickers Guide

Sunday 1 April 2012

MARCH RESULTS UPDATE

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