Jumps Trial - Selections for Saturday 30th November

There are two selections that could offer a bit of value at the Hennessy meeting at Newbury tomorrow.....

1.50 Newbury

This is a 2m3f handicap for horses rated 0-150 and was won by the smart At Fishers Cross last term before he went on to scoop the Albert Bartlett .

One that is worth keeping a close eye on in the betting is Alan King's Batonnier as he has lightly-raced profile like last year's winner, but he's returning from a 672-day lay off.

King is enjoying a fine season and his Invictus - who is prominent in the betting for the Hennessy later on the card tomorrow - is another one returning from a long break. You wouldn't put it past King to have either runner ready but, at 8/1, the doubts over his well-being now back from a break perhaps aren't fully factored in.

Another lightly-raced one to consider is Paul Nicholls' Saphir Du Rheu, who was sent off 6-1 joint-favourite for the Fred Winter last term. He's 1lb lower than that day now, and enjoyed a recent pipeopener at Sandown, but at 10/1 he's coming into line with his true price.

I prefer GIBB RIVER over both as, even at 7/1, he appears to represent solid value. He's actually racing off his last winning mark, as, after signing off the 2011/12 season with victory at Sandown, he missed the whole of last season.

Nevertheless, there was much to like about his recent comeback run at Ascot when fifth behind Pine Creek, as he stayed in contention for a long way until blowing up late on.

If stripping fitter for that outing, off an unchanged rating, then he's weighted to go well for Barry Geraghty.

3.00 Newbury

In the main race of the day - The Hennessy - HOUBLON DES OBEAUX makes some each-way appeal at a nice price.

He mixed it up with some smart novices last term, finishing third behind Captain Conan at Sandown and then chasing home Rocky Creek over 3m at Ascot, beaten by little under two lengths.

That rival is 7-1 for this race and 3lb better off with the Venetia Williams representative now moving into handicaps, but what our selection does have in his favour is that he's already dipped his toes into handicaps and shown himself to be competitive, proving his match fitness in the process.

He's been a horse Venetia Williams has always held in high regard and she made no secret of the fact she felt he was overpriced going into the RSA last spring.

He disappointed, suffering from a mistake at the 15th before staying on again at the finish for seventh, and therefore has work to do with the winner, Lord Windermere here.

However, Newbury rides differently to Cheltenham, which offers hope he could narrow the gap on the Irish raider - who has been backed off the boards in the last week since trainer Jim Culloty revealed his confidence behind his chances - and the manner in which he put a competitive Ascot field to the sword on his reappearance earlier in the month (Merry King back in second) suggested he's continued to improve during his time off the track and could make up into a smart sort this year.

He looks a grinder, and one that could improve again for this step up in trip.

It does need acknowledging that Aidan Coleman has overlooked him in favour of riding Katenko, who was well-regarded last season but missed Cheltenham after suffering from a bout of colic. He beat subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup winner John's Spirit by nine lengths so could be feasibly weighted, but you get the impression that it was a tough choice for Coleman to make and he's sided with the horse with the better reputation, and sexier profile.

Katenko is returning from a lay-off though and when it comes to making a value assessment, he's 7-1 versus our selection, who is four times that price with Betbright. That simply looks too big a discrepancy for a six-year-old that posted a career best last time out and could have more to offer over fences on his tenth chase outing.

Summary of jumps trials selections for 30th Nov (weak, medium or strong selections, win or EW)

1.50 Newbury - Gibb River 7/1 Coral, Paddypower, Ladbrokes - medium EW selection
3.00 Newbury - Houblon Des Obeaux 28/1 Bet Bright, 25/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, medium EW selection

National Hunt Trial - 2013/14

Last winter I decided to start compiling my own performance ratings for the all-weather and the results produced between November and March were the strongest set of results since the service began in 2010.

With that in mind, I transferred the methods on turf for the 2013 season - but things simply didn't work out in that alternative sphere. While it is clear in my mind that, for next season, we can't use the performance ratings for turf races, their effectiveness for jumps races has yet to be tested.

Therefore, the purpose of my blogs over the next few months will be to evaluate whether there is any mileage in using the figures in the NH scene too.

It may be that things don't work with the jumpers either and if that's the case then it looks like the sole use for the figures will be the AW - but we might as well investigate and see how things pan out - as anything that can potentially lead to greater turnover and a source of possible profit is worth testing out.

None of the bets which follow will be included in my official spreadsheet records, nor will they have a stake attached to them*. They won't be officially proofed anywhere, but just to prove nothing has been after-timed, I will also Tweet all selections via my Twitter page (@NMPunter) as well as posting the reasoning on this blog.

*Bets will have a 'weak', 'medium' or 'strongly fancied' comment and 'win' or 'each-way' attached to them.

With a football trial already running alongside my main service, I didn't want to bombard members with any more e-mails. Hopefully posting any jumps picks in here will keep things separate from the main service though and we can evaluate the results later down the line when a greater number of bets have been placed.

Cheers,

Wayne