A full breakdown of all advised bets in March....
Khanivorous -0.5
The Lock Master -1.5
Iver Bridge Lad -0.5
Round Won -0.5
Iver Bridge Lad +0.75 (Placed 16/1 EW)
Here To Win -0.5
Fareer +0.3 (Placed 11/1 EW)
Yirga -0.5
Thunderball -0.5
Spirit of Sharjah -0.5
Jack My Boy -1
Magen's Star -0.5
Razor Royale -0.5
Dunguib -0.5
Quevega/Big Bucks +2.5 - both won
The Giant Bolster -0.5
Wayward Prince -0.25
Sizing Europe +3.75 (WON 12/1 EW)
Bothy +0.63 (Placed 14/1 EW)
Loosen My Load +0.19 (Placed 7/1 EW)
Grand Crus -0.25
J'y Vole -0.5
Edgbriar -0.5
Brouhaha -0.03
Tidal Bay -0.5
Neptune Collonges -0.5
Notus De La Tour -0.5
Grand Lahou -0.25
Le Beau Bai -0.5
High Regal -0.5
Luisant +0.03 (Placed 9/2 EW)
Blue Moon -0.5
Italian Tom -1
Double Carpet -0.5
Curtains +12.5 (WON 12/1)
Five Star Junior -0.5
Nideeb/Twice Over double -0.5
West Coast Dream +3.75 (WON 8/1 EW)
Parhelion -0.25
Lindoro -0.25
Drop The Hammer -0.5
Nimue +1.8 (WON 4/1 EW)
Monthly Stats:
Total Pts Staked: 23
Profit/loss: +9.92
ROI: +43%
Overall Stats:
Total Prs Staked: 774.50
Profit/loss: +192.36
ROI: +25%
Friday 8 April 2011
Grand National 2011 - Pinsticker's Guide
Pinsticker’s Guide to the 2011 Grand National
This year's race is run at Aintree on Saturday 9th April at 4.15 pm.
1. DON’T PUSH IT – successful in last year’s renewal off 7lb lower. Was raised 11lbs for that victory but hasn’t been seen over fences since (kept fit over hurdles this year) and handicapper has given him every chance by allowing him to race off 160 – 4lb lower than he’d have to carry in a normal handicap chase. Conditions look ideal and likely to go well.
2. TIDAL BAY – classy sort that won 2008 Arkle over two miles at Cheltenham Festival. Showed some of that ability still retains when chasing home Imperial Commander in Grade 1 event over 3m at Haydock, but is far from certain to stay this longer distance and is a quirky customer that turns up when he wants to.
3. WHAT A FRIEND – high class on his day and won Grade 1 Totesport Bowl at last years meeting. Returned to form when a staying on fourth in the Gold Cup and 15lb well in on official figures but has a questionable attitude and one to treat with caution.
4. VIC VENTURI – won the 2009 Becher Chase over these fences and was travelling well until hampered and unseating rider in last year’s National. Not proven to stay the distance but one of the more interesting outsiders from yard that saddled the runner up (Black Appalachi) last term.
5. MAJESTIC CONCORDE – useful dual purpose performer that is lightly raced over fences (seven runs) but has already shown ability over fences when winning £94k Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December (Becauseicouldntsee back in second). Not certain to confirm those placings over this much longer trip but acts on good ground and no surprise to see him go well if his stamina holds out.
6. OR NOIR DE SOMOZA – prolific chaser in French and has won three top level prizes in his homeland. However, ideally needs soft or heavy ground and hasn’t yet proven himself beyond 3m.
7. DOONEYS GATE – respectable fourth over these fences in last year’s Topham has given him a taster of what is in store here but he ideally prefers a bit more give in the ground and isn’t certain to see out the trip (best form up to 3m previously).
8. BIG FELLA THANKS – has finished sixth and fourth in the last two renewals of this race but been well held on both occasions and is 5lb higher than last year now. May benefit for recent stable switch but a more convincing case can be made for others off this mark.
9. THE TOTHER ONE – useful hurdler but sole success over fences came in an egg and spoon race at Exeter as a novice. Has been contesting some tough races this season and although mark has now dropped ahead of return to handicaps, looks vulnerable to better treated rivals.
10. BALLABRIGGS – has been aimed at this race for some time and is one of the more polished jumpers in the field. Won the valuable Kim Muir handicap at last years Festival and still on an upward curve. Two runs over hurdles this season have protected his chase mark before the weights came out and enjoyed a solid prep run over an inadequate trip at Kelso last time. Will act on the ground and should be bang there if his stamina holds out (untried beyond 3m2f)
11. THE MIDNIGHT CLUB – looks one of the best handicapped runners in the race and has shown smart form as a novice. Beat Arbor Supreme and Oscar Time in the Bobbyjo chase at Fairyhouse last time and with Ruby Walsh taking the ride his price has shortened in the weeks leading up to the event. Will be desperately praying that the rain arrives, though.
12. NICHE MARKET – smart chaser for Bob Buckler and won the 2009 Irish National under today’s jockey Harry Skelton. Pulled up in last year’s race when out of contention but was hampered in the early stages. Has since joined Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and has seen his mark come down 8lbs for staying on one paced in the Hennessy over a trip shorter than ideal. Has had a prep run since to sharpen up his fitness, acts on the ground and is capable of going close.
13. SILVER BY NATURE – classy handicapper on his day and won valuable Haydock chase in February in emphatic fashion. He is 11lb well in on official ratings but will be desperately praying the heavens open as his best form has all been on slow ground.
14. BACKSTAGE – can be considered unlucky after being hampered by a loose horse last season (unseated rider) and races off the same mark once again. Still yet to prove he gets the trip and has only been winning weak races between the flags this season, however, acts on the ground and must be considered for shrewd handler.
15. CHIEF DAN GEORGE – only 6lb higher than when winning the William Hill trophy at Cheltenham in 2010 but his progression has stalled since. His fifth in the Scottish National (2009) hints he may last the distance and although he acts on the ground, a big leap of faith needed to back him in view of efforts this term.
16. CALGARY BAY – talented novice two seasons ago but hasn’t fulfilled that early promise subsequently and on a long losing run. Will appreciate the flat track and ground but his stamina has to be brought in to question.
17. KILLYGLEN – quirky customer that won a novices’ chase on the Mildmay course here two years ago. Another that has failed to live up to his reputation of late and comes here with a little to prove now sailing into unchartered waters with regards to trip.
18. OSCAR TIME – Won the 2009 Paddy Power Chase over 3m at Leopardstown to demonstrate his class and was second in last year’s Irish National behind Bluesea Cracker. Only 4lb higher now but has produced his best form to date with cut in the ground.
19. QUINZ – progressive novice this term that has belied his tender years and jumped well when winning the valuable Racing Post Chase in February. 9lb well in as a result and likely to be effective on his flat track but needs to prove he won’t be overawed by the big occasion in a race as unique as this.
20. BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE – dour stayer that was runner up in 2009 National Hunt Cup at Cheltenham over 4m. Showed class when filling runner up spot in Paddy Power Chase behind Majestic Concorde when last sighted and has every chance of reversing that form over this longer trip if fully wound up to go (missed prep runs due to abandonments and a minor injury). Market has spoken in his favour and one of the more interesting outsiders.
21. COMPLY OR DIE – winner of this race in 2008 and runner up twelve months later. Finished well beaten last term but has been given a huge chance by the handicapper (now 9lb lower) and not had ideal conditions this season. While his best years are seemingly behind him, he seems to come to life over these fences, on this ground, and could feasibly snatch a place.
22. QUOLIBET – difficult runner to assess as most of his form has come in France. However, pulled up in cross-country race at Cheltenham last month and his best form over shorter so can only be watched today.
23. GRAND SLAM HERO – capable chaser on his day that won valuable prize at Market Rasen in September. Fully effective on the ground and not handicapped out of this but stamina beyond 3m2f not proven and has underperformed the last twice which further tempers enthusiasm.
24. STATE OF PLAY – second in this race last year (beaten 25 lengths) and hasn’t raced since. Has no doubt had this race as his long-term target all along and reportedly goes well fresh. 3lb lower this year but assumptions would have to be made on his fitness.
25. KING FONTAINE – rapidly progressive at Haydock earlier in season but seems to have paid for those easy victories as he has been held twice since reassessment. Open to further improvement but needs to eliminate the jumping errors and taking a big step up in trip.
26. IN COMPLIANCE – useful chaser on his day and shown that ability still remains with credible efforts this term, albeit over shorter. Another that prefers softer ground though and is stepped up in trip markedly.
27. HELLO BUD – solid jumper that ran a cracker when fifth in last year’s renewal. Capitalised on easing mark to land Becher Chase over these fences earlier this term and competitively weighted as only 1lb higher than twelve months ago. Ground will be ideal and an overpriced outsider with place possibilities.
28. WEST END ROCKER – overcame lengthy absence when winning at Newbury on reappearance and followed up in valuable Warwick stayers race on testing ground thereafter. That seemed to leave a mark on him when blowing up at Haydock last time but is weighted to win more races and acts on ground; cannot be discounted if bouncing back.
29. SANTA’S SON - yet to win beyond 2m6f and stamina highly in doubt. Look elsewhere.
30. BLUESEA CRACKER – won Irish National last year and although 9lb higher now, a tough mare that jumps well and remains weighted to be competitive. Recently purchased by JP McManus but probably needs some juice in the ground to be seen to best effect.
31. THAT’S RHYTHM – stays 3m and effective on good ground but his stamina over this longer journey an unknown and questionable whether he has the class to win.
32. SURFACE TO AIR – won stamina sapping Midlands Grand National in 2008 but injuries restricted him to one run since, when bringing up the field on his recent comeback. Hard to make a sensible case for until showing he retains his old ability.
33. PIRAYA – finished midfield in last years race and looks a doubtful stayer again.
34. CAN’T BUY TIME – fourth in 4m National Hunt Cup in 2009 and effective on good ground. Well handicapped but has failed to get around the last two years and clearly a risky proposition.
35. CHARACTER BUILDING – seventh in last year’s renewal but well held. In reasonable form this year and 5lb lower so cannot be totally dismissed, but others make much stronger appeal.
36. ORNAIS –a whole lot tougher than the hunter chases he has been contesting of late and seemingly up against it as would be 17lb lower in a normal handicap chase.
37. ARBOR SUPREME – talented stayer on his day and was well supported in the build up for last year’s race only to disappoint when it mattered (unseated rider at 15th). Again, looks one of the best handicapped horses in the race but safer alternatives exist elsewhere.
38. ROYAL ROSA – finished runner up in the Becher Chase over these fences earlier in the season but isn’t getting any younger and is another inconsistent sort that is best watched. Unseated rider at 14th last year.
39. SKIPPER’S BRIG – been brought along nicely this term after gentle comeback and beat Ballabriggs in Kelso event last term. Looks well handicapped but will be doing a rain dance in the build up to the race as ideally wants it soft.
40. GOLDEN KITE – won Munster National over 3m earlier in season and useful on his day. Effective on spring ground but 10lb higher than last win and not certain to stay.
Verdict
The greatest steeplechase on earth promises to be as competitive as ever and the compression of the handicap means reigning champion Don’t Push It has very good claims defying the trends and landing back-to-back renewals off top weight of 11-10. 2008 winner Comply Or Die is another that has been given every chance by the assessor and now granted his ideal ground he, like Vic Venturi and Hello Bud, who have also tackled these fences previously, look capable of running big races at each-way prices, however, they are all vulnerable to something better handicapped and for win purposes it may be best to look elsewhere. The likes of The Midnight Club, Oscar Time, Silver By Nature, Bluesea Cracker and Skipper’s Brig would make more appeal if conditions deteriorated but with the ground likely to be riding good, all are passed over. Quinz and Becauseicouldntsee are lightly raced over fences but are weighted to win a big prize and look the ‘improver’ angle in the race but it may pay to side with the battle hardened NICHE MARKET who is narrowly preferred ahead of the likeable Ballabriggs on the basis of his proven stamina in the Irish National. Paul Nicholls’ charge runs off a nice racing weight of 10-13 and can finally end his trainer’s National hoodoo. West End Rocker has a little to prove after pulling up in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month but is another with the potential to improve that must also be considered.
This year's race is run at Aintree on Saturday 9th April at 4.15 pm.
1. DON’T PUSH IT – successful in last year’s renewal off 7lb lower. Was raised 11lbs for that victory but hasn’t been seen over fences since (kept fit over hurdles this year) and handicapper has given him every chance by allowing him to race off 160 – 4lb lower than he’d have to carry in a normal handicap chase. Conditions look ideal and likely to go well.
2. TIDAL BAY – classy sort that won 2008 Arkle over two miles at Cheltenham Festival. Showed some of that ability still retains when chasing home Imperial Commander in Grade 1 event over 3m at Haydock, but is far from certain to stay this longer distance and is a quirky customer that turns up when he wants to.
3. WHAT A FRIEND – high class on his day and won Grade 1 Totesport Bowl at last years meeting. Returned to form when a staying on fourth in the Gold Cup and 15lb well in on official figures but has a questionable attitude and one to treat with caution.
4. VIC VENTURI – won the 2009 Becher Chase over these fences and was travelling well until hampered and unseating rider in last year’s National. Not proven to stay the distance but one of the more interesting outsiders from yard that saddled the runner up (Black Appalachi) last term.
5. MAJESTIC CONCORDE – useful dual purpose performer that is lightly raced over fences (seven runs) but has already shown ability over fences when winning £94k Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December (Becauseicouldntsee back in second). Not certain to confirm those placings over this much longer trip but acts on good ground and no surprise to see him go well if his stamina holds out.
6. OR NOIR DE SOMOZA – prolific chaser in French and has won three top level prizes in his homeland. However, ideally needs soft or heavy ground and hasn’t yet proven himself beyond 3m.
7. DOONEYS GATE – respectable fourth over these fences in last year’s Topham has given him a taster of what is in store here but he ideally prefers a bit more give in the ground and isn’t certain to see out the trip (best form up to 3m previously).
8. BIG FELLA THANKS – has finished sixth and fourth in the last two renewals of this race but been well held on both occasions and is 5lb higher than last year now. May benefit for recent stable switch but a more convincing case can be made for others off this mark.
9. THE TOTHER ONE – useful hurdler but sole success over fences came in an egg and spoon race at Exeter as a novice. Has been contesting some tough races this season and although mark has now dropped ahead of return to handicaps, looks vulnerable to better treated rivals.
10. BALLABRIGGS – has been aimed at this race for some time and is one of the more polished jumpers in the field. Won the valuable Kim Muir handicap at last years Festival and still on an upward curve. Two runs over hurdles this season have protected his chase mark before the weights came out and enjoyed a solid prep run over an inadequate trip at Kelso last time. Will act on the ground and should be bang there if his stamina holds out (untried beyond 3m2f)
11. THE MIDNIGHT CLUB – looks one of the best handicapped runners in the race and has shown smart form as a novice. Beat Arbor Supreme and Oscar Time in the Bobbyjo chase at Fairyhouse last time and with Ruby Walsh taking the ride his price has shortened in the weeks leading up to the event. Will be desperately praying that the rain arrives, though.
12. NICHE MARKET – smart chaser for Bob Buckler and won the 2009 Irish National under today’s jockey Harry Skelton. Pulled up in last year’s race when out of contention but was hampered in the early stages. Has since joined Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and has seen his mark come down 8lbs for staying on one paced in the Hennessy over a trip shorter than ideal. Has had a prep run since to sharpen up his fitness, acts on the ground and is capable of going close.
13. SILVER BY NATURE – classy handicapper on his day and won valuable Haydock chase in February in emphatic fashion. He is 11lb well in on official ratings but will be desperately praying the heavens open as his best form has all been on slow ground.
14. BACKSTAGE – can be considered unlucky after being hampered by a loose horse last season (unseated rider) and races off the same mark once again. Still yet to prove he gets the trip and has only been winning weak races between the flags this season, however, acts on the ground and must be considered for shrewd handler.
15. CHIEF DAN GEORGE – only 6lb higher than when winning the William Hill trophy at Cheltenham in 2010 but his progression has stalled since. His fifth in the Scottish National (2009) hints he may last the distance and although he acts on the ground, a big leap of faith needed to back him in view of efforts this term.
16. CALGARY BAY – talented novice two seasons ago but hasn’t fulfilled that early promise subsequently and on a long losing run. Will appreciate the flat track and ground but his stamina has to be brought in to question.
17. KILLYGLEN – quirky customer that won a novices’ chase on the Mildmay course here two years ago. Another that has failed to live up to his reputation of late and comes here with a little to prove now sailing into unchartered waters with regards to trip.
18. OSCAR TIME – Won the 2009 Paddy Power Chase over 3m at Leopardstown to demonstrate his class and was second in last year’s Irish National behind Bluesea Cracker. Only 4lb higher now but has produced his best form to date with cut in the ground.
19. QUINZ – progressive novice this term that has belied his tender years and jumped well when winning the valuable Racing Post Chase in February. 9lb well in as a result and likely to be effective on his flat track but needs to prove he won’t be overawed by the big occasion in a race as unique as this.
20. BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE – dour stayer that was runner up in 2009 National Hunt Cup at Cheltenham over 4m. Showed class when filling runner up spot in Paddy Power Chase behind Majestic Concorde when last sighted and has every chance of reversing that form over this longer trip if fully wound up to go (missed prep runs due to abandonments and a minor injury). Market has spoken in his favour and one of the more interesting outsiders.
21. COMPLY OR DIE – winner of this race in 2008 and runner up twelve months later. Finished well beaten last term but has been given a huge chance by the handicapper (now 9lb lower) and not had ideal conditions this season. While his best years are seemingly behind him, he seems to come to life over these fences, on this ground, and could feasibly snatch a place.
22. QUOLIBET – difficult runner to assess as most of his form has come in France. However, pulled up in cross-country race at Cheltenham last month and his best form over shorter so can only be watched today.
23. GRAND SLAM HERO – capable chaser on his day that won valuable prize at Market Rasen in September. Fully effective on the ground and not handicapped out of this but stamina beyond 3m2f not proven and has underperformed the last twice which further tempers enthusiasm.
24. STATE OF PLAY – second in this race last year (beaten 25 lengths) and hasn’t raced since. Has no doubt had this race as his long-term target all along and reportedly goes well fresh. 3lb lower this year but assumptions would have to be made on his fitness.
25. KING FONTAINE – rapidly progressive at Haydock earlier in season but seems to have paid for those easy victories as he has been held twice since reassessment. Open to further improvement but needs to eliminate the jumping errors and taking a big step up in trip.
26. IN COMPLIANCE – useful chaser on his day and shown that ability still remains with credible efforts this term, albeit over shorter. Another that prefers softer ground though and is stepped up in trip markedly.
27. HELLO BUD – solid jumper that ran a cracker when fifth in last year’s renewal. Capitalised on easing mark to land Becher Chase over these fences earlier this term and competitively weighted as only 1lb higher than twelve months ago. Ground will be ideal and an overpriced outsider with place possibilities.
28. WEST END ROCKER – overcame lengthy absence when winning at Newbury on reappearance and followed up in valuable Warwick stayers race on testing ground thereafter. That seemed to leave a mark on him when blowing up at Haydock last time but is weighted to win more races and acts on ground; cannot be discounted if bouncing back.
29. SANTA’S SON - yet to win beyond 2m6f and stamina highly in doubt. Look elsewhere.
30. BLUESEA CRACKER – won Irish National last year and although 9lb higher now, a tough mare that jumps well and remains weighted to be competitive. Recently purchased by JP McManus but probably needs some juice in the ground to be seen to best effect.
31. THAT’S RHYTHM – stays 3m and effective on good ground but his stamina over this longer journey an unknown and questionable whether he has the class to win.
32. SURFACE TO AIR – won stamina sapping Midlands Grand National in 2008 but injuries restricted him to one run since, when bringing up the field on his recent comeback. Hard to make a sensible case for until showing he retains his old ability.
33. PIRAYA – finished midfield in last years race and looks a doubtful stayer again.
34. CAN’T BUY TIME – fourth in 4m National Hunt Cup in 2009 and effective on good ground. Well handicapped but has failed to get around the last two years and clearly a risky proposition.
35. CHARACTER BUILDING – seventh in last year’s renewal but well held. In reasonable form this year and 5lb lower so cannot be totally dismissed, but others make much stronger appeal.
36. ORNAIS –a whole lot tougher than the hunter chases he has been contesting of late and seemingly up against it as would be 17lb lower in a normal handicap chase.
37. ARBOR SUPREME – talented stayer on his day and was well supported in the build up for last year’s race only to disappoint when it mattered (unseated rider at 15th). Again, looks one of the best handicapped horses in the race but safer alternatives exist elsewhere.
38. ROYAL ROSA – finished runner up in the Becher Chase over these fences earlier in the season but isn’t getting any younger and is another inconsistent sort that is best watched. Unseated rider at 14th last year.
39. SKIPPER’S BRIG – been brought along nicely this term after gentle comeback and beat Ballabriggs in Kelso event last term. Looks well handicapped but will be doing a rain dance in the build up to the race as ideally wants it soft.
40. GOLDEN KITE – won Munster National over 3m earlier in season and useful on his day. Effective on spring ground but 10lb higher than last win and not certain to stay.
Verdict
The greatest steeplechase on earth promises to be as competitive as ever and the compression of the handicap means reigning champion Don’t Push It has very good claims defying the trends and landing back-to-back renewals off top weight of 11-10. 2008 winner Comply Or Die is another that has been given every chance by the assessor and now granted his ideal ground he, like Vic Venturi and Hello Bud, who have also tackled these fences previously, look capable of running big races at each-way prices, however, they are all vulnerable to something better handicapped and for win purposes it may be best to look elsewhere. The likes of The Midnight Club, Oscar Time, Silver By Nature, Bluesea Cracker and Skipper’s Brig would make more appeal if conditions deteriorated but with the ground likely to be riding good, all are passed over. Quinz and Becauseicouldntsee are lightly raced over fences but are weighted to win a big prize and look the ‘improver’ angle in the race but it may pay to side with the battle hardened NICHE MARKET who is narrowly preferred ahead of the likeable Ballabriggs on the basis of his proven stamina in the Irish National. Paul Nicholls’ charge runs off a nice racing weight of 10-13 and can finally end his trainer’s National hoodoo. West End Rocker has a little to prove after pulling up in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month but is another with the potential to improve that must also be considered.
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