Now armed with the Castrol percentages and a list of possible bets I've tried to work out the best way to try exploit the apparent value. I don't want to go down the route of backing everything that is priced bigger than their predicted prices as I think the chances of getting two big nations knocked out of each group, for example, are slim.
I've played around with the Castrol percentages further and tried to work out if there is any value in the 'dual forecast' markets - backing any two teams to qualify.
I imagine that the bookies calculate the dual forecast prices by multiplying together the individual odds of the two teams in question and then factor in that, once the first team has qualifed, there is one qualification place up for grabs between the other three times battling it out.
However, because such weight is attached to the fancied teams in each group, if one of the big teams were to dissapoint, and an unfancied nation were to progress, there is the potential to cash in with some massive dual forecast prices on offer.
The singles are thus
- Group A - Poland/Czech Republic dual forecast, 6/1 Coral, 0.25 pt win
- Group B - Germany/Denmark dual forecast, 11/1 Blue Square, 0.25 pt win
- Group C - Spain/Ireland dual forecast 13/2 Blue Square, 0.5 pt win
- Group D - Sweden/France dual forecast 6/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt win
In the hope of landing a juicy payout I've also combined certain dual forecasts in multiples:
- Holland-Germany (11/10), Spain-Italy (10/11) and France-England (13/8) all bankered with a fourth leg of either Russia-Czech Republic (3/1) or Poland-Czech Republic (6/1) (2 bets).
- Poland-Russia (9/4), Holland-Germany and Spain-Italy bankered with a fourth leg of either England-Sweden (13/2) or France-Sweden (6/1)(2 bets)
- Poland-Russia, Holland-Germany and France-England bankered with fourth legs of either Spain-Croatia (11/4), Spain-Ireland (6/1), Italy-Croatia (10/1), Italy-Ireland (20/1), Ireland-Croatia (33/1) (5 bets)
- Poland-Russia, Spain-Italy or France-England bankered with fourth legs of either Holland-Portugal (11/2), Germany-Portugal (5/2), Germany-Denmark (10/1), Holland-Denmark (16/1), or Denmark-Portugal (25/1)(5 bets)
14 x 0.1 pt four-folds, 1.4 pt staked in total
