I've been playing around with the Castrol outcome predictor again in the last few days and it has churned out some interesting odds percentages for the 'to qualify from group' markets.
Group A
Poland's available price of 4/5 was identical to that generated by Castrol, while the Russians were deemed too short (4/9 available with 8/11 the price to beat). Although they are already unfancied in this Group, Greece were deemed no value (15/8 the price to beat but only 6/4 available) and the only real betting opportunity could be Czech Republic who, at 6/4 were much bigger than their predicted 10/11 chance.
I'm already on Poland in this market so unwilling to go back in on the Czech's in another single.
Group B
The 'Group of death' looks fascinating when analysed with the Castrol calculator, since they think Germany's chances of winning the entire tournament (as per last weeks post) have been over estimated and Holland's and Portugal's underrated. It is thus little surprise to see plenty of apparent value in this market, principally with Denmark (predicted 11/4 but 9/2 available) to qualify. Backing Germany at 3/1 (11/8 predicted) in the 'not to qualify' market is also another possible value bet.
I've already backed Holland and Portugal for the tournament outright so am wary of having too big an interest. That said, there could be immense value in this market should either Germany or Holland fall by the way side - something commented on in my next blog.
Group C
Another really interesting set of percentages here, since the calculator predicts Spain's and Italy's chances of qualification have been badly overplayed. There is apparent value in backing them 'not to qualify' as at 11/2 and 11/8, both are priced much bigger than their predicted odds (4/1 and 4/5 respectively). Ireland's chance of qualifying was 15/8, yet they are available to back at 4/1 which looks juicy, while Croatia at 7/4 are also a fraction bigger than the 13/8 generated.
It would take a brave man to back against Spain qualifying wouldn't it? I'm unfamiliar with the new Italian side but told they are more adventurous than the traditional Azzurri. They are thus one side I am looking forward to seeing, although I'm not against opposing them for betting purposes
Group D
England and France are both priced around 1/2 to qualify, yet their predicted odds are much larger at 4/6 and evens respectively. There thus appears to be value in siding with Sweden who, at 2/1 to qualify, are priced significantly bigger than the 11/8 predicted. France 'not to qualify' also comes out as a value bet, although I won't be backing this since I've backed them to win the group. Ukraine represent some value at 6/4 (5/4 predicted) to qualify but are one of the lowest ranked teams (albeit with home advantage) in the tournament.
England look far from bombproof and I'm quite happy to take them on with the stubborn Swedes to chase France home in this Group.
