Group D Match Bets

The Castrol calculator suggests Sweden are overpriced against Ukraine this evening but I wanted to have the benefit of having the draw onside and have backed draw no bet.

Sweden to beat Ukraine (draw no bet) 11/10 Ladbrokes, 1.5 pt win

At 13/5, England are also overpriced on the Castrol percentages, since their odds to beat France on the calculator are 3.22 (9/4). France could prove tricky opponents however so again, I've backed draw no bet.

England to beat France (draw no bet) 11/8 Bet Victor, 0.5 pt win

Spain v Italy

I've also had 1.5 pt win on Spain at 5/6 with Coral since Spain are the tournament favourites and look to have strong claims against an Italian side over which the Jury is still out (mixed results in qualifying).

Spain to win the game 5/6 Coral, 1.5 pt win

Spain v Italy bets

With no Fernando Torres or Fernando Llorente named in the Spanish starting XI, David Silva could be played in a 'Messi/Barca' type role.

The Manchester City magician was Spain's second highest scorer in qualifying (top scorer David Villa now injured) with four goals and looks overpriced for first scorer if he truly is their main hope of a goal. If Spain are to win I fancy them to nick this by the odd goal so have also thrown a few quid at a 1-0 scorecast.

David Silva first goalscorer 10/1 Stan James, 0.2 pt win
David Silva/1-0 Spain scorecast 45/1 Stan James, 0.05 pt win

Final ante-post bets

So the tournament kicks off in Warsaw shortly as hosts Poland entertain Greece and I've just finished putting on my final ante-post bets for the tournament.

A couple of special bets were of interest, firstly Group C as the lowest scoring group. Group A heads the betting at 6/4 and contains Poland, Russia, Czech Republic and Greece in what looks a closely matched group, but the value could be in backing Group C at 11/4 as the Spanish, without Villa, could net fewer than expected and the Irish, although unfancied, set up around a solid defence and pinching games by the odd goal. The fate of the bet will probably depend on just how attack-minded the new look Italians are and how leaky the Croatia defence is, but at 11/4 I think a small wager can be justifed.

Group C to be lowest scoring group 11/4 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt win

Related to the last bet with regards to Group goals, Group B looks value at 9/5 with Ladbrokes to be the highest scoring group. Groups A and C look tight and in Group D England and France are likely to have solid defences. In contrast, both Portugal and Denmark have the potential to leak goals in Group B against the free scoring Dutch and Germans, who, themselves, lack the defensive solidarity of Spain.

Group B to be the highest scoring Group 9/5 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win

Holland and Portugal are the two teams I've backed for the tournament outright and, given the player of the tournament has traditionally been attached to the winning team, it makes sense to look amongst these teams for a potential winner in this market. Past winners have been Sammer, Zidane, Zagorakis and Xavi, so there is potential value in looking beyond the likely top scorers for the winning team.

Robben and Sneijder both make plenty of appeal for the Dutch, as if their team is to win this competition, they are likely to be the supply line for Van Persie or Huntelaar.

Portugal's main driving force would likely be Ronaldo, although at 100/1, Nani may also be worth a speculative punt, as he has plenty of international experience and is also likely to be a big player in Portgual's bid, since they possess no outstanding goalscorer.

Robben to be named player of the tournament 25/1 Bet 365, 0.15 pt win
Sneijder to be named player of the tournament 25/1 Stan James, 0.15 pt win
Ronaldo to be named player of the tournament 20/1 Ladbrokes, 0.1 pt win
Nani to be named player of the tournament 100/1 Bet Victor, 0.1 pt win

More Group Bets - To Qualify - Part 2

Now armed with the Castrol percentages and a list of possible bets I've tried to work out the best way to try exploit the apparent value. I don't want to go down the route of backing everything that is priced bigger than their predicted prices as I think the chances of getting two big nations knocked out of each group, for example, are slim.

I've played around with the Castrol percentages further and tried to work out if there is any value in the 'dual forecast' markets - backing any two teams to qualify.

I imagine that the bookies calculate the dual forecast prices by multiplying together the individual odds of the two teams in question and then factor in that, once the first team has qualifed, there is one qualification place up for grabs between the other three times battling it out.

However, because such weight is attached to the fancied teams in each group, if one of the big teams were to dissapoint, and an unfancied nation were to progress, there is the potential to cash in with some massive dual forecast prices on offer.

The singles are thus

- Group A - Poland/Czech Republic dual forecast, 6/1 Coral, 0.25 pt win
- Group B - Germany/Denmark dual forecast, 11/1 Blue Square, 0.25 pt win
- Group C - Spain/Ireland dual forecast 13/2 Blue Square, 0.5 pt win
- Group D - Sweden/France dual forecast 6/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt win

In the hope of landing a juicy payout I've also combined certain dual forecasts in multiples:

- Holland-Germany (11/10), Spain-Italy (10/11) and France-England (13/8) all bankered with a fourth leg of either Russia-Czech Republic (3/1) or Poland-Czech Republic (6/1) (2 bets).
- Poland-Russia (9/4), Holland-Germany and Spain-Italy bankered with a fourth leg of either England-Sweden (13/2) or France-Sweden (6/1)(2 bets)
- Poland-Russia, Holland-Germany and France-England bankered with fourth legs of either Spain-Croatia (11/4), Spain-Ireland (6/1), Italy-Croatia (10/1), Italy-Ireland (20/1), Ireland-Croatia (33/1) (5 bets)
- Poland-Russia, Spain-Italy or France-England bankered with fourth legs of either Holland-Portugal (11/2), Germany-Portugal (5/2), Germany-Denmark (10/1), Holland-Denmark (16/1), or Denmark-Portugal (25/1)(5 bets)

14 x 0.1 pt four-folds, 1.4 pt staked in total

More Group Bets - To Qualify - Part 1

I've been playing around with the Castrol outcome predictor again in the last few days and it has churned out some interesting odds percentages for the 'to qualify from group' markets.

Group A

Poland's available price of 4/5 was identical to that generated by Castrol, while the Russians were deemed too short (4/9 available with 8/11 the price to beat). Although they are already unfancied in this Group, Greece were deemed no value (15/8 the price to beat but only 6/4 available) and the only real betting opportunity could be Czech Republic who, at 6/4 were much bigger than their predicted 10/11 chance.

I'm already on Poland in this market so unwilling to go back in on the Czech's in another single.

Group B

The 'Group of death' looks fascinating when analysed with the Castrol calculator, since they think Germany's chances of winning the entire tournament (as per last weeks post) have been over estimated and Holland's and Portugal's underrated. It is thus little surprise to see plenty of apparent value in this market, principally with Denmark (predicted 11/4 but 9/2 available) to qualify. Backing Germany at 3/1 (11/8 predicted) in the 'not to qualify' market is also another possible value bet.

I've already backed Holland and Portugal for the tournament outright so am wary of having too big an interest. That said, there could be immense value in this market should either Germany or Holland fall by the way side - something commented on in my next blog.

Group C

Another really interesting set of percentages here, since the calculator predicts Spain's and Italy's chances of qualification have been badly overplayed. There is apparent value in backing them 'not to qualify' as at 11/2 and 11/8, both are priced much bigger than their predicted odds (4/1 and 4/5 respectively). Ireland's chance of qualifying was 15/8, yet they are available to back at 4/1 which looks juicy, while Croatia at 7/4 are also a fraction bigger than the 13/8 generated.

It would take a brave man to back against Spain qualifying wouldn't it? I'm unfamiliar with the new Italian side but told they are more adventurous than the traditional Azzurri. They are thus one side I am looking forward to seeing, although I'm not against opposing them for betting purposes

Group D

England and France are both priced around 1/2 to qualify, yet their predicted odds are much larger at 4/6 and evens respectively. There thus appears to be value in siding with Sweden who, at 2/1 to qualify, are priced significantly bigger than the 11/8 predicted. France 'not to qualify' also comes out as a value bet, although I won't be backing this since I've backed them to win the group. Ukraine represent some value at 6/4 (5/4 predicted) to qualify but are one of the lowest ranked teams (albeit with home advantage) in the tournament.

England look far from bombproof and I'm quite happy to take them on with the stubborn Swedes to chase France home in this Group.

Top scorer multi's - Part 2

Continuing on from the previous post, another option with regards to the top scorer multiples is to dip into the top league goalscorer market. Bet 365 permit multiples on selections across the four main leagues 1) Premier League 2) Bundesliga 3) La Liga and 4) Serie A.

They don't, however, allow each-way betting on La Liga. With Real Madrid responsible for Oezi, Benzema and Ronaldo in this market, perhaps it is best to swerve the league anyway and focus on the other three.

I've already backed Van Persie at 9/2 (as per earlier posts) for top Premier League scorer so naturally want him onside here too. In the belief Germany and Holland are the most likely finalists if they can escape their group of death, I've also looked for German and Dutch representatives from the Bundesliga and Serie A - with Mario Gomez (Bundesliga) and Sneijder (Serie A) making most appeal as those that could go far in the tournament and potentially net two or three to give themselves every chance in their respective markets.

Bets (Bet 365)

Top Premier League scorer - Van Persie 7/2 Top Bundesliga scorer - Gomez 5/2 Top Serie A scorer - Sneijder 11/2

0.125 pt EW trixie