Competition Picks - Saturday 15th February

Afternoon all,

We have 32 entries today. Here are the most popular picks

2.40 Ascot - Houblon Des Oboux 4/1
2.55 Haydock - Wychwoods Brook 8/1
3.15 Ascot - Two Rockers 6/1

The second most popular were Highland Lodge, Loch Ba and Heath Hunter.

Free bets placed:

3 x £20 singles
3 x £5 doubles
1 x £2.50 treble

Any returns to the winner

Good luck all.

Jumps Trial - Selection for Saturday 7th December

Both Gibb River and Houblon Des Obeaux were unplaced last week- not the best start to the trial - so here's hoping for better on Saturday in the Becher Chase.

2.05 Aintree (Sat)

ROBERTO GOLDBACK gained experience of the Grand National fences when running in the National itself last season. He was in touch until blundering at the 24th, dropping off thereafter and eventually unseating rider Barry Geraghty at the last. However, the experience gained that day should prove invaluable as he returns for another crack at these unique fences, now running over a shorter trip.

He showed his class when landing a Grade 2 chase in Ireland for Dessie Hughes and made a winning start for his current stable when landing the United House Gold Cup handicap at Ascot last season. He's racing off a mark only 1lb higher than at Ascot on Saturday and ran a promising fourth in this year's Ascot renewal, finishing a nose behind stable Triolo D'Alene, who has since won the Hennessy to give the form a big boost.

It may be that Roberto Goldback, too, improves between his first and second runs, as many runners from the Henderson stable this year have needed a run and haven't been fully tuned up first time out.

The selection is more exposed than some of the market principals but Hello Bud twice prospered in the race with a similar profile and perhaps his wealth of chase experience and past experience of these fences proved crucial.

Summary of jumps trial selection for 7th Dec (weak, medium or strong selections, win or EW)

1.50 Newbury - Roberto Goldback 16/1 Coral, Betfred, Bet Victor - weak EW selection

Jumps Trial - Selections for Saturday 30th November

There are two selections that could offer a bit of value at the Hennessy meeting at Newbury tomorrow.....

1.50 Newbury

This is a 2m3f handicap for horses rated 0-150 and was won by the smart At Fishers Cross last term before he went on to scoop the Albert Bartlett .

One that is worth keeping a close eye on in the betting is Alan King's Batonnier as he has lightly-raced profile like last year's winner, but he's returning from a 672-day lay off.

King is enjoying a fine season and his Invictus - who is prominent in the betting for the Hennessy later on the card tomorrow - is another one returning from a long break. You wouldn't put it past King to have either runner ready but, at 8/1, the doubts over his well-being now back from a break perhaps aren't fully factored in.

Another lightly-raced one to consider is Paul Nicholls' Saphir Du Rheu, who was sent off 6-1 joint-favourite for the Fred Winter last term. He's 1lb lower than that day now, and enjoyed a recent pipeopener at Sandown, but at 10/1 he's coming into line with his true price.

I prefer GIBB RIVER over both as, even at 7/1, he appears to represent solid value. He's actually racing off his last winning mark, as, after signing off the 2011/12 season with victory at Sandown, he missed the whole of last season.

Nevertheless, there was much to like about his recent comeback run at Ascot when fifth behind Pine Creek, as he stayed in contention for a long way until blowing up late on.

If stripping fitter for that outing, off an unchanged rating, then he's weighted to go well for Barry Geraghty.

3.00 Newbury

In the main race of the day - The Hennessy - HOUBLON DES OBEAUX makes some each-way appeal at a nice price.

He mixed it up with some smart novices last term, finishing third behind Captain Conan at Sandown and then chasing home Rocky Creek over 3m at Ascot, beaten by little under two lengths.

That rival is 7-1 for this race and 3lb better off with the Venetia Williams representative now moving into handicaps, but what our selection does have in his favour is that he's already dipped his toes into handicaps and shown himself to be competitive, proving his match fitness in the process.

He's been a horse Venetia Williams has always held in high regard and she made no secret of the fact she felt he was overpriced going into the RSA last spring.

He disappointed, suffering from a mistake at the 15th before staying on again at the finish for seventh, and therefore has work to do with the winner, Lord Windermere here.

However, Newbury rides differently to Cheltenham, which offers hope he could narrow the gap on the Irish raider - who has been backed off the boards in the last week since trainer Jim Culloty revealed his confidence behind his chances - and the manner in which he put a competitive Ascot field to the sword on his reappearance earlier in the month (Merry King back in second) suggested he's continued to improve during his time off the track and could make up into a smart sort this year.

He looks a grinder, and one that could improve again for this step up in trip.

It does need acknowledging that Aidan Coleman has overlooked him in favour of riding Katenko, who was well-regarded last season but missed Cheltenham after suffering from a bout of colic. He beat subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup winner John's Spirit by nine lengths so could be feasibly weighted, but you get the impression that it was a tough choice for Coleman to make and he's sided with the horse with the better reputation, and sexier profile.

Katenko is returning from a lay-off though and when it comes to making a value assessment, he's 7-1 versus our selection, who is four times that price with Betbright. That simply looks too big a discrepancy for a six-year-old that posted a career best last time out and could have more to offer over fences on his tenth chase outing.

Summary of jumps trials selections for 30th Nov (weak, medium or strong selections, win or EW)

1.50 Newbury - Gibb River 7/1 Coral, Paddypower, Ladbrokes - medium EW selection
3.00 Newbury - Houblon Des Obeaux 28/1 Bet Bright, 25/1 Bet Victor, Stan James, medium EW selection

National Hunt Trial - 2013/14

Last winter I decided to start compiling my own performance ratings for the all-weather and the results produced between November and March were the strongest set of results since the service began in 2010.

With that in mind, I transferred the methods on turf for the 2013 season - but things simply didn't work out in that alternative sphere. While it is clear in my mind that, for next season, we can't use the performance ratings for turf races, their effectiveness for jumps races has yet to be tested.

Therefore, the purpose of my blogs over the next few months will be to evaluate whether there is any mileage in using the figures in the NH scene too.

It may be that things don't work with the jumpers either and if that's the case then it looks like the sole use for the figures will be the AW - but we might as well investigate and see how things pan out - as anything that can potentially lead to greater turnover and a source of possible profit is worth testing out.

None of the bets which follow will be included in my official spreadsheet records, nor will they have a stake attached to them*. They won't be officially proofed anywhere, but just to prove nothing has been after-timed, I will also Tweet all selections via my Twitter page (@NMPunter) as well as posting the reasoning on this blog.

*Bets will have a 'weak', 'medium' or 'strongly fancied' comment and 'win' or 'each-way' attached to them.

With a football trial already running alongside my main service, I didn't want to bombard members with any more e-mails. Hopefully posting any jumps picks in here will keep things separate from the main service though and we can evaluate the results later down the line when a greater number of bets have been placed.

Cheers,

Wayne

Latest Results

A breakdown of all of my latest results can be accessed by clicking through the Racing Index logo on my homepage (www.northernmonkeypunter.co.uk). Results are given to SP and BSP.

A full breakdown of all bets to advised stakes and prices is sent out to my members in an Excel file at the end of every month.

At the end of July the overall service profit was +244.43 pts from a total of 1313.95 pts staked (+19 % ROI)

Winners in July included Bunbury Cup winner Bonnie Brae (13/2),Very Good Day (18/1) and Sheila's Buddy (20/1).

Group B

Holland have been readily dismissed for tonight's group clash with Germany after their opening round defeat against Denmark but, come the end of the group stage, that result might not seem so bad after all as the Danes appear to have been vastly underrated.

If Holland's attack is firing on all cyclinders this evening then they have the potential to breach the Germany defence, which looked penetratable against Portugal at the weekend.

Denmark have been written off against Portugal but beat their opponents during a qualifying encounter and showed they'd been completely underrated with a superb opening game victory against Holland. Portgual need to show a little bit more ambition if they're to win tonight as they only came to life against the Germans when they'd slipped behind

Denmark +0.75 asian handicap (1.75) & Holland +0.25 asian handicap (1.70), 1 pt win double with Bet 365.

Sweden / Ibrahimovic win cast

William Hill have published a price boost for the Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score anytime/Swedento win win cast from 3/1 to 8/1 (there is a banner on the Football / Euro 2012 link that you can follow on their homepage) which looks outstanding value considering this bet is 10/3 in places elsewhere.

Skybetand Bet Victor offer 3/1 for the same bet, Hills Ladbrokes 10/3.

Ibrahimovic/Sweden wincast 8/1 William Hill, 2 pt win

Group D Match Bets

The Castrol calculator suggests Sweden are overpriced against Ukraine this evening but I wanted to have the benefit of having the draw onside and have backed draw no bet.

Sweden to beat Ukraine (draw no bet) 11/10 Ladbrokes, 1.5 pt win

At 13/5, England are also overpriced on the Castrol percentages, since their odds to beat France on the calculator are 3.22 (9/4). France could prove tricky opponents however so again, I've backed draw no bet.

England to beat France (draw no bet) 11/8 Bet Victor, 0.5 pt win

Spain v Italy

I've also had 1.5 pt win on Spain at 5/6 with Coral since Spain are the tournament favourites and look to have strong claims against an Italian side over which the Jury is still out (mixed results in qualifying).

Spain to win the game 5/6 Coral, 1.5 pt win

Spain v Italy bets

With no Fernando Torres or Fernando Llorente named in the Spanish starting XI, David Silva could be played in a 'Messi/Barca' type role.

The Manchester City magician was Spain's second highest scorer in qualifying (top scorer David Villa now injured) with four goals and looks overpriced for first scorer if he truly is their main hope of a goal. If Spain are to win I fancy them to nick this by the odd goal so have also thrown a few quid at a 1-0 scorecast.

David Silva first goalscorer 10/1 Stan James, 0.2 pt win
David Silva/1-0 Spain scorecast 45/1 Stan James, 0.05 pt win

Final ante-post bets

So the tournament kicks off in Warsaw shortly as hosts Poland entertain Greece and I've just finished putting on my final ante-post bets for the tournament.

A couple of special bets were of interest, firstly Group C as the lowest scoring group. Group A heads the betting at 6/4 and contains Poland, Russia, Czech Republic and Greece in what looks a closely matched group, but the value could be in backing Group C at 11/4 as the Spanish, without Villa, could net fewer than expected and the Irish, although unfancied, set up around a solid defence and pinching games by the odd goal. The fate of the bet will probably depend on just how attack-minded the new look Italians are and how leaky the Croatia defence is, but at 11/4 I think a small wager can be justifed.

Group C to be lowest scoring group 11/4 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt win

Related to the last bet with regards to Group goals, Group B looks value at 9/5 with Ladbrokes to be the highest scoring group. Groups A and C look tight and in Group D England and France are likely to have solid defences. In contrast, both Portugal and Denmark have the potential to leak goals in Group B against the free scoring Dutch and Germans, who, themselves, lack the defensive solidarity of Spain.

Group B to be the highest scoring Group 9/5 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win

Holland and Portugal are the two teams I've backed for the tournament outright and, given the player of the tournament has traditionally been attached to the winning team, it makes sense to look amongst these teams for a potential winner in this market. Past winners have been Sammer, Zidane, Zagorakis and Xavi, so there is potential value in looking beyond the likely top scorers for the winning team.

Robben and Sneijder both make plenty of appeal for the Dutch, as if their team is to win this competition, they are likely to be the supply line for Van Persie or Huntelaar.

Portugal's main driving force would likely be Ronaldo, although at 100/1, Nani may also be worth a speculative punt, as he has plenty of international experience and is also likely to be a big player in Portgual's bid, since they possess no outstanding goalscorer.

Robben to be named player of the tournament 25/1 Bet 365, 0.15 pt win
Sneijder to be named player of the tournament 25/1 Stan James, 0.15 pt win
Ronaldo to be named player of the tournament 20/1 Ladbrokes, 0.1 pt win
Nani to be named player of the tournament 100/1 Bet Victor, 0.1 pt win

More Group Bets - To Qualify - Part 2

Now armed with the Castrol percentages and a list of possible bets I've tried to work out the best way to try exploit the apparent value. I don't want to go down the route of backing everything that is priced bigger than their predicted prices as I think the chances of getting two big nations knocked out of each group, for example, are slim.

I've played around with the Castrol percentages further and tried to work out if there is any value in the 'dual forecast' markets - backing any two teams to qualify.

I imagine that the bookies calculate the dual forecast prices by multiplying together the individual odds of the two teams in question and then factor in that, once the first team has qualifed, there is one qualification place up for grabs between the other three times battling it out.

However, because such weight is attached to the fancied teams in each group, if one of the big teams were to dissapoint, and an unfancied nation were to progress, there is the potential to cash in with some massive dual forecast prices on offer.

The singles are thus

- Group A - Poland/Czech Republic dual forecast, 6/1 Coral, 0.25 pt win
- Group B - Germany/Denmark dual forecast, 11/1 Blue Square, 0.25 pt win
- Group C - Spain/Ireland dual forecast 13/2 Blue Square, 0.5 pt win
- Group D - Sweden/France dual forecast 6/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt win

In the hope of landing a juicy payout I've also combined certain dual forecasts in multiples:

- Holland-Germany (11/10), Spain-Italy (10/11) and France-England (13/8) all bankered with a fourth leg of either Russia-Czech Republic (3/1) or Poland-Czech Republic (6/1) (2 bets).
- Poland-Russia (9/4), Holland-Germany and Spain-Italy bankered with a fourth leg of either England-Sweden (13/2) or France-Sweden (6/1)(2 bets)
- Poland-Russia, Holland-Germany and France-England bankered with fourth legs of either Spain-Croatia (11/4), Spain-Ireland (6/1), Italy-Croatia (10/1), Italy-Ireland (20/1), Ireland-Croatia (33/1) (5 bets)
- Poland-Russia, Spain-Italy or France-England bankered with fourth legs of either Holland-Portugal (11/2), Germany-Portugal (5/2), Germany-Denmark (10/1), Holland-Denmark (16/1), or Denmark-Portugal (25/1)(5 bets)

14 x 0.1 pt four-folds, 1.4 pt staked in total

More Group Bets - To Qualify - Part 1

I've been playing around with the Castrol outcome predictor again in the last few days and it has churned out some interesting odds percentages for the 'to qualify from group' markets.

Group A

Poland's available price of 4/5 was identical to that generated by Castrol, while the Russians were deemed too short (4/9 available with 8/11 the price to beat). Although they are already unfancied in this Group, Greece were deemed no value (15/8 the price to beat but only 6/4 available) and the only real betting opportunity could be Czech Republic who, at 6/4 were much bigger than their predicted 10/11 chance.

I'm already on Poland in this market so unwilling to go back in on the Czech's in another single.

Group B

The 'Group of death' looks fascinating when analysed with the Castrol calculator, since they think Germany's chances of winning the entire tournament (as per last weeks post) have been over estimated and Holland's and Portugal's underrated. It is thus little surprise to see plenty of apparent value in this market, principally with Denmark (predicted 11/4 but 9/2 available) to qualify. Backing Germany at 3/1 (11/8 predicted) in the 'not to qualify' market is also another possible value bet.

I've already backed Holland and Portugal for the tournament outright so am wary of having too big an interest. That said, there could be immense value in this market should either Germany or Holland fall by the way side - something commented on in my next blog.

Group C

Another really interesting set of percentages here, since the calculator predicts Spain's and Italy's chances of qualification have been badly overplayed. There is apparent value in backing them 'not to qualify' as at 11/2 and 11/8, both are priced much bigger than their predicted odds (4/1 and 4/5 respectively). Ireland's chance of qualifying was 15/8, yet they are available to back at 4/1 which looks juicy, while Croatia at 7/4 are also a fraction bigger than the 13/8 generated.

It would take a brave man to back against Spain qualifying wouldn't it? I'm unfamiliar with the new Italian side but told they are more adventurous than the traditional Azzurri. They are thus one side I am looking forward to seeing, although I'm not against opposing them for betting purposes

Group D

England and France are both priced around 1/2 to qualify, yet their predicted odds are much larger at 4/6 and evens respectively. There thus appears to be value in siding with Sweden who, at 2/1 to qualify, are priced significantly bigger than the 11/8 predicted. France 'not to qualify' also comes out as a value bet, although I won't be backing this since I've backed them to win the group. Ukraine represent some value at 6/4 (5/4 predicted) to qualify but are one of the lowest ranked teams (albeit with home advantage) in the tournament.

England look far from bombproof and I'm quite happy to take them on with the stubborn Swedes to chase France home in this Group.

Top scorer multi's - Part 2

Continuing on from the previous post, another option with regards to the top scorer multiples is to dip into the top league goalscorer market. Bet 365 permit multiples on selections across the four main leagues 1) Premier League 2) Bundesliga 3) La Liga and 4) Serie A.

They don't, however, allow each-way betting on La Liga. With Real Madrid responsible for Oezi, Benzema and Ronaldo in this market, perhaps it is best to swerve the league anyway and focus on the other three.

I've already backed Van Persie at 9/2 (as per earlier posts) for top Premier League scorer so naturally want him onside here too. In the belief Germany and Holland are the most likely finalists if they can escape their group of death, I've also looked for German and Dutch representatives from the Bundesliga and Serie A - with Mario Gomez (Bundesliga) and Sneijder (Serie A) making most appeal as those that could go far in the tournament and potentially net two or three to give themselves every chance in their respective markets.

Bets (Bet 365)

Top Premier League scorer - Van Persie 7/2 Top Bundesliga scorer - Gomez 5/2 Top Serie A scorer - Sneijder 11/2

0.125 pt EW trixie

Top scorer multi's - bookies benefit or potential goldmine? Part 1

Top scorer multiples

Plenty of bookmakers have priced up a whole host of top goalscorer markets now, including not only the tournament outright, but also top scorers specific to each nation, major domestic club, or domestic league.

Certain bookmakers are allowing multiple bets on selections within these markets (for example amongst different nation scorers but not between nation and club scorers etc), creating the opportunity to have a shot at a big payout for a small outlay.

Such bets are a bookies benefit normally, but is there anything special to these markets which makes an investment justifiable during the European Championships?

Having done some research into the scoring habits of the last two Championships it soon became evident that for the majority of the 16 competing nations, two goals could, in most cases, ensure a 'win' in the top nation scorer market. As teams progress the bar obviously gets raised, but for the small, unfancied nationals eliminated at the group stage, one or two goals can be enough to be classed as a winner.

Looking through the squad lists of certain countries, there appears to be a lack of goalscoring options unless unpredictables, such as centrebacks netting from corners, are factored in. More likely than not, we are looking at one or two lively runners from each country, as well as, for the unfancied teams, the possibility of 'no goalscorer.' With only two or three likely outcomes I guess you could say its no different to picking several teams from a win/draw/win Saturday domestic coupon, and we all know trying to land five and six folds of this sort are nigh on impossible unless you go for the ridiculously short home bankers.

Top goalscorer multiples will be susceptible to that same problem - that of one or two selections likely letting the bet down, but by perming and also backing the selections each-way there is the hope of taking out a little bit of insurance. Providing all selections don't draw blank, there could be hope of a juicy payout.

My plan of attack has two elements to it and I've looked for teams at one of two extremes 1) those drawn in tough groups that, if the market is correct, are most likely to be sent home after the group stage and 2) those teams that are fancied to progress all the way in the tournanment. As teams from this latter category play six games in total, there is double the opportunity for the 'class' of leading goalscorers to come to the fore, and less chance of luck playing a part in one or two game fixtures (the scenario we are actually hoping to exploit with the category 1 teams). I've thus tried to stay away from teams that could qualify from their group but get eliminated in the quarter's and semi's. I needed a way of cutting down the number of bets from 16, since that makes a hell of a lot of perms for multiples, and this was the best logic I could come up with.

The teams that I've come down on are Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Holland. I rate Robbie Keane and his goalscoring record for Ireland is admirable. I think he's Ireland's best hope of a goal against tight Spanish and Italian defences, although his most likely opportunity should come against Croatia. It could well be that whoever scores against Croatia is the winner of the top Irish scorer market. I can't fathom out Croatia's best side and who is likely to score most of Modric, Eduardo, Olic or Jelavic, so passed them over.

Denmark were a tricky side to pick a player from since Bendtner and Rommedahl were joint-top scorers with three a piece in qualifying but with Bendtner likely to spearhead the attack, he was the percentage call. I was hoping he might be on penalty-taking duties but it seems Daniel Agger netted in their friendly win this evening. However, Bendtner, who has 18 goals from 48 international starts just shades the vote over 33-year-old Brondby flyer Rommedahl. Portugal's main hope of a goal is Ronaldo but he's priced accordingly and with Nani also likely to chip in with one or two, I passed them over in this group.

Another Sunderland boy caused me a bit of headache since the Racing Post's football guys list him as the probable penalty taker for Sweden, although I am hoping Ibrahimovic can blast in enough goals against Ukraine for that not to be an issue even if Larsson were to net from the spot. I don't think there is much between Sweden and France in Group D and whilst they could well progress beyond the group stage, a potential quarter final versus Spain is considered a very tough fixture in which they could feasibly draw a blank. In an ideal world I'm hoping Sweden fail to net versus England and France and that Ibrahimovic nets in the Ukraine game to land the spoils.

Germany and Holland are the two sides I hoped might go all of the way to the final in the tournament. I'm thus hoping that their class goalscorers will get a greater opportunity for their ability to shine through. Both sides look blessed with goals and the Dutch have a headache deciding between Huntelaar, who was prolific (12 goals) in qualifying, and Van Persie, who scored a respectable 6 and arrives on the back of a fantastic domestic season at Arsenal. Based on the fact Van Persie started, and netted twice, in their friendly against Northern Ireland this evening, he gets the nod.

Germany look to have an unbelievable arsenal going into the tournament and boast what is probably the best squad in the tournament. Schweinsteiger, Oezil, Muller, Podolski, Klose and Gomez are a joy to watch and they have been a very popular ante-post choice. Klose was their leading marksmen in qualifying but Gomez led the line in their latest friendly and has enjoyed a superb domestic season at Bayern. It is hoped he doesn't suffer from a Champions League hangover but if he starts he is guaranteed service due to Germany's embarassment of attacking talent.

Bets (Coral):

Top Sweden scorer - Ibrahimovic 3/1
Top Denmark scorer - Bendtner 7/2
Top Ireland scorer - Keane 7/2
Top Germany scorer - Gomez 2/1
Top Holland scorer - Van Persie 2/1

10 x 0.05 pt EW trebles
5 x 0.025 pt EW fourfolds

Tournament Outright Bets

Tournament Outright

If anyone hasn't come across the Castrol Euro football calculator then I'd recommend paying their site a visit. Using their formula, they churn out what they believe to be the percentage chance of a number of outcomes occurring, including that of each team being crowned champions. If the Castrol percentages are converted into 'true' odds the resulting market reads roughly something like this....

100/30 Spain, 11/2 Holland, 15/2 Germany, 11/1 England, Portugal, 20/1 France, 25/1 Italy, Russia, 33/1 Ukraine, Sweden, 40/1 Czech Republic, 50/1 Croatia, Republic of Ireland, 60/1 Denmark, Poland, 125/1 Greece.

The actual available odds at the time of writing this evening (bolded teams are those backable at odds greater than their 'true' chance of winning) are 11/4 Spain 3/1, Germany, 7/1 Holland, 12/1 England, 12/1 France, 14/1 Italy, 20/1 Portugal, 25/1 Russia, 50/1 Poland, 50/1 Ukraine, 60/1 Croatia, 80/1 Sweden, Czech Republic, 100/1 Denmark, Republic Of Ireland, Greece.

In terms of a percentage discrepancy, the Castrol Figures suggest PORTUGAL are the team that represent the biggest value at their present 20/1 price as their 'true' odds are suggested to be half of that. However, Portugal look to have a very tricky task against the free scoring Germans and Dutch considering they had one of the weaker defences in qualifying. For main bet purposes perhaps it might be better to side with HOLLAND, who, if they won Group B, potentially face Poland or Russia and then possibly France or England en route to a potential final with Spain. Finishing runner-up would make things a little more difficult as a potential set of fixtures with Russia, Spain and Germany could await, but with the likes of Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie and Huntelaar in their ranks, they possess plenty of match winners that should keep their opponents on their toes.

Holland to win tournament outright 7/1 Boylesports (who offer a concession whereby losing stakes are refunded if selections are eliminated on penalties), 0.375 pt win

Portugal to win the tournament outright 20/1 Bet Victor (who offer a concession whereby losing stakes are refunded if Spain win the tournament), 0.125 pt win

Euro Special - Top Scoring League

Euro Special - Top Scoring League

Ladbrokes offer a novelty market in which you can bet on the highest scoring league at the Championships - with the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A the four options.

The Premier League heads the market at 1/2 and although Robin Van Persie represents this division and looks set to knock in a few, the likes of Torres and Ballotelli were peripheral figures for their respective sides during qualification. With Rooney suspended for England's opening two matches and his likely replacements (Wellbeck, Defoe and Carroll - all representing the same league) falling short of world class, I feel the favourite is worth taking on.

Serie A have Ibrahimovic, Sneijder, Klose and Di Natale on their side and have fair claims, but La Liga and Bundesliga look the pair to focus on.

La Liga boast Benzema, Ronaldo and Llorente, then beyond that trio there are the likes of Pedro, Iniesta, Oezil and Postiga that could also weight in with a contribution.

However, the most potent armoury looks to be in the BUNDESLIGA, with Bayern Munich mainly responsible for some of the most exciting attacking players in the world. Gomez (top goalscorer favourite for the tournament), Huntelaar, who scored 12 goals during qualification for Holland, and Lewandowski (scored over 20 for Borussia Dortmund, representing Poland) and Mueller, Robben and Ribery are all lively runners for the Bundesliga. The 3/1 on offer could be considered too big considering the Dutch and German representation against a Portugal defence who shipped more than a goal a game during qualification.

Bundesliga to be top league scorer 3/1 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win

Player Specials - Top Premier League Scorer

Player Specials - Top Premier League Scorer

ROBIN VAN PERSIE occupies second favouritism behind Germany's Mario Gomez in the standard top goalscorer market. I fancy both of their nations to progress beyond the group stage and bag their fair share of goals, but the market has a rather more open look to it and it might be best to take the Bundesliga boys out of the equation and bet in the top Premier League scorer alternative.

The reason this market appeals as offering an angle is that Wayne Rooney (16/1) is suspended for England's first two group matches versus France and Sweden, while Fernando Torres (10/1) and Mario Ballotelli (10/1) were peripheral figures in qualification for Spain and Italy respectively.

Arsenal's new recruit Lukas Podolski is an excellent player with a deadly left foot and could prove a dark horse at 10/1, but with Germany's main source of goals like to be Bayern's Mario Gomez the percentage call is to take him on, likewise Man City magician David Silva, who is a joy to watch and looks capable of netting but may see Fernando Llorente outpoint him in the Spanish scoring stakes.

Although he is favourite in this market, Robin Van Persie really does have plenty going for him. He netted six in qualifying, and although Klaas Jan-Huntelaar netted double that tally, the Dutch appeal as the sort of side that will continue to fire in goals throughout the tournament and provide him with plenty of ammunition.

Portugal amd Denmark's defences are both breachable at the group stage to get him up and running and, barring injury, Van Persie could cap off what has been a career-best season at Arsenal with a bold showing.

Robin Van Persie to be top Premier League goalscorer at the Euros 4/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt win

England Special - Top Team Scorer

England Special - Top Team Scorer

Although, like any Englishman, I’d really like England to win the group and go all of the way in the competition, I don't have particularly high expectations going into the tournament. The timing of the FA’s appointment of Roy Hodgson, only weeks before before the start of the tournament, is less than ideal, and the squad is undergoing a transitional phase, with the likes of John Terry, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard perhaps playing their last major tournament and ready to be shown the door with a view to the future.

The loss of Wayne Rooney through suspension for the opening two Group games versus France and Sweden is also a major blow, and with none of England’s strike replacements – Andy Carroll, Jermaine Defoe and Danny Welbeck - prolific either on the international scene or at major international tournaments, goals must be a big worry for England, who are very solid defensively otherwise.

It could well be the case that a one or two goal haul could be enough to find a winner in this market, especially if England are eliminated at the group stage, and there must be some value in taking on the suspended Rooney, who is 5/1 favourite and has drawn a blank at England's last two major tournaments. Second favourite Carroll is expected to play more of a target man type role while the likes of Walcott and Downing appear the sorts that will be creating rather than converting.

The one that appeals as a value bet is ASHLEY YOUNG (8/1 Betfred), who added another England goal to his tally in this week's friendly with Norway and netted against Wales, Montengego and Holland last season to underline his goalscoring prowess.

The Manchester United winger has often been criticised for his theatrics but remains a danger to all around the egde of the box and will be hoping to curl one in against Sweden - who had one of the leakier defences in qualifying - or the penetratable Ukraine.

Ashley Young to be top England goalscorer 8/1 Betfred, 0.5 pt win

Group D Bet - France to win group

Group D Bet

France were a team in turmoil at the 2010 World Cup, with infighting and player revolts undermining their tournament, in which they finished bottom of Group A with just a point to their name. However, they have been transformed from a laughing stock into a serious international force once again since Raymond Domenech was replaced by former Bordeaux boss Laurent Blanc.

Les Bleus are now unbeaten in their last nineteen starts, topped their group during qualification, and have also beaten Germany, England and Brazil in friendlies since their last tournament exit.

Drawn against England, Sweden and Ukraine, France boast excellent head-to-head records against each of those three nations. They are unbeaten in their last five clashes with England, gave Ukraine a 4-1 beating at Donetsk in 2011 (W3 D3 L0) whilst, against Sweden, France are unbeaten in their last 11 games.

Bearing in mind they get to face a Rooney-less England and boast a wealth of attacking talent, including Nasri, Ribery and Benzema, they really do look a juicy price at 7/4 (Paddypower) to top the group.

France to win Group D, 7/4 Paddypower, 2 pts win